2013年11月24日星期日

华尔街见闻: 苏格兰有望于2016年3月24日独立

华尔街见闻
 
Start taking a college level music theory class today.

This beginner class is now accessible to aspiring musicians of all ages. Learn all of the basic concepts in an easy to follow manner.
From our sponsors
苏格兰有望于2016年3月24日独立
Nov 24th 2013, 12:52, by tree

BBC报道称,苏格兰政府将于下周二发布白皮书,其中提及2014年9月苏格兰将举行全体公民投票,决定是否从英国独立。如果独立公投结果支持独立,2016年3月24日将是苏格兰的独立日。

该白皮书被认为是苏格兰独立的蓝图,这份670页的白皮书将在下周二公布,包含纸质版和电子版,相比以前,这是最详细的独立蓝图,涵盖经济、社会和民主问题。

当中论证了苏格兰的财政实力和独立的细节,包括谈判、准备和协议等内容,涉及到明年9月投票之后到2016年独立日期间的过渡性工作,也提到苏格兰在2016年5月举行第一次的国会选举。

全民公投将在明年9月18日举行,倘若确定独立,苏格兰当前的议会将于2016年3月23日午夜解散,次日也就是3月24日苏格兰独立。

苏格兰官方发言人表示,苏格兰人民仍然不知道苏格兰政府试图进行谈判的全部条件,但是欧盟、北大西洋公约组织和英国其他地区的28个成员都很清楚,对苏格兰政府而言,设定日期比议程更重要。

苏格兰秘书长Alistair Carmichael表示,我们赞同大家应该阅读白皮书和英国政府的证据,然后根据自己的意愿做出选择。

文章分类: 

You are receiving this email because you subscribed to this feed at blogtrottr.com.

If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can unsubscribe from this feed, or manage all your subscriptions

华尔街见闻: 全球“避税天堂”评估

华尔街见闻
 
Shop Tervis tumblers.

Create a one of a kind personalized gift. It's fun and easy to design!
From our sponsors
全球"避税天堂"评估
Nov 24th 2013, 12:30, by 若离

经合组织(OECD)本月发布的最新评估展示出,在交换信息以避免逃税者滥用银行系统方面,哪些国家地区做得很好、哪些做得很差。

以下就是根据OECD这份评估制作的图表,没有标注的国家地区,要么就是合规的,要么就是没有出现在同业评估中。

 

总体来看,除了名声在外的瑞士,这次评级有一些"老油条"大家已经耳熟能详,比如塞浦路斯、卢森堡、塞舌尔群岛和英属维京群岛。给予它们的评价都是不遵守法规。
华尔街见闻的老读者也许还记得,今年3月我们分享过中国的"维京情结"和让俄罗斯又喜又忧的塞浦路斯。

避税天堂的冒牌外资大量涌入使金砖国家承受着双重税收损失。

而这次评估里,早有"避税天堂"声名的开曼群岛算是个意外,它的评级竟然是大部分遵守法规。

National Journal等美国知名杂志及媒体Quartz撰稿人 Tim Fernholz指出,这一方面体现出英国对开曼群岛施加的压力,另一方面也是因为开曼群岛是监督评级过程的指导委员会成员。

 

相关文章: 
金砖四国多数外资都是冒牌货?
文章分类: 

You are receiving this email because you subscribed to this feed at blogtrottr.com.

If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can unsubscribe from this feed, or manage all your subscriptions

华尔街见闻: BI:全球最重要的100张图表(十)

华尔街见闻
 
Start taking a college level music theory class today.

This beginner class is now accessible to aspiring musicians of all ages. Learn all of the basic concepts in an easy to follow manner.
From our sponsors
BI:全球最重要的100张图表(十)
Nov 24th 2013, 10:54, by 若离

相关文章:BI:全球最重要的100张图表(一)BI:全球最重要的100张图表(二)

                  BI:全球最重要的100张图表(三)BI:全球最重要的100张图表(四)

                  BI:全球最重要的100张图表(五)BI:全球最重要的100张图表(六)

                  BI:全球最重要的100张图表(七)BI:全球最重要的100张图表(八)

                  BI:全球最重要的100张图表(九)

91、美联储使美国通胀前景进入未知领域

Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理Patrick Chovanec指出:

美联储的三轮QE使美国基础货币增加到3.5万亿美元,几乎是金融危机前的四倍。

换句话说,如果美国人像以往那样正常贷款和支出,美国的名义GDP应该是今天的四倍。

之所以到现在我们还没有发现通胀肆无忌惮地上升,那是因为贷款持平,没有增长。

美联储注入的新增货币之中,将近84%都直接转变为从未使用的银行准备金。

除非美联储找到方法扭转通胀走势,否则当银行再次开始贷款时,这笔庞大的资金就会变成通胀压力。

我们不知道何时银行会真正开始贷款,也不知道再过多久就会这样行动,我们身处无人探知的领域。

92、股市的警告信号

S&P Capital IQ首席股票策略师Sam Stovall称,

市场回调(价格下跌5-10%)或者调整(跌幅10-20%)时,我建议投资者买入,因为标普500在平均只有两个月的回调和四个月的调整时间里就收复全部失地。

这一平均期间是基于1945年以来的57次回调和19次调整得出的结论。过去的表现不能保证未来的成绩。

但市场时而也会警告我们,更可怕的事会出现,鼓励我们进行资本保值。

有个简单的示警指标是标普500的10个月移动均线变动。

 

93、欧洲企业举债的心理

CreditSights欧洲信用策略师David Watts认为

金融危机以来,欧元区非金融业公司的债务增加不足1%,如果计入持现和其他金融资产,净负债实际减少7%。

同期欧元高收益债券市场规模扩大一倍,高收益保险自2009年以来年增幅都高于2006年创下的年增长记录。

投资级高收益信用产品的表现展示,对那些有能力在债券市场融资的企业,他们的整体债务并没有增加。

发债量增加部分体现出融资形势变化,以前靠贷款融资的公司现在改为发债。

现有的发债机构一直在偿还债券,这样做减少了再融资的障碍,使利息费用降低。

但目前还没有大量的迹象表明,企业在融资成本处于历史最低水平时发债。

大多数欧洲企业经营困难,收入增长疲弱,利润空间受挤压。

因为对增长前景不那么乐观,所以他们几乎根本不愿为了累积库存或扩大产能而借款。

这意味着欧洲的信贷指标实际上还很强,企业债的价格不仅发挥着以低收益率支持政府的作用,稳定的债务水平、债券到期安排改善和宽松的融资环境信贷利差也支持着信贷利差。

94、信贷增加了,带来的增长却减少了

花旗信用产品策略全球负责人Matt King称

增长出现了密集贷款的特性,这意味着,产生同样规模的GDP需要比以往更多的贷款。这是种"错误的"复苏。

在美国和许多新兴市场都是如此。

95、美国的潜力在减弱

Loomis Sayles负责宏观策略与主权债务分析的副总裁Rick Harrell认为,

潜在GDP增长预计会继续下降,这是美联储政策和利率的直接影响结果。

有人认为利率会开始上升,升至多年来新高。这些人要考虑到,利率升高通常伴随着增长和通胀双双上扬。

可能有一天,我们会发现通胀升了,增长却放缓了,这样的增长会限制利率走高的幅度。

96、美国的中国效应

德意志银行首席美股策略师David Bianco称,

即使美国房产开工和汽车销售都在增加,制造业增长已经放缓,停下了脚步。

中国增长放缓可以解释这一切。

随着城市生活水平提高,中国的资本货物需求应该会加快增加。

 

97、欧洲需要德拉吉经济学

法国兴业银行全球策略师Kit Juckes称

通胀下降,银行贷款也在减少,失业率在增加,经常账户盈余持续增长,欧元还在升值,这些都是货币政策太紧的表现。

基于泰勒法则(Taylor Rule)和一些共识经济预期,利率应该远低于零,而且要多年停留在这样的低水平。

欧洲需要欧洲央行行长德拉吉的经济学。

 

98、货币流通有什么问题?

野村美国利率策略负责人George Goncalves展示了就业者比例(红线)与货币流通速度(黑线)的走势。

他提出了下面这个问题:

让更多的人工作是不是意味着通胀后货币流通速度更快?

 

99、全球最重要的能源图表

美银美林全球商品与衍生品研究负责人Francisco Blanch推荐下面这幅图,认为它是最重要的能源图表:

在工业化国家和正在工业化的国家之中,美国的天然气价格是最低的,这对消费者和企业都有好处。

这幅图表支持了美国经济今后会强劲复苏的观点,同时也说明新兴市场会碰到一些麻烦。

100、英国央行怎样看结束QE的影响

Threadneedle Investments多种资产分配负责人Toby Nangle称,

这幅图能体现QE的煽动者认为QE结束会怎样影响资产价格,它是唯一一幅我找到有这种作用的图。

英国央行2011年第三季度公布了这幅图,它展示了实行QE时实际资产价格会大幅上升,但这种升势会从QE结束时起逐步消失。

 

最后,附送瑞银经济学家George Magnus提供的图表,它体现了中国GDP的信贷密度

它展示了每一元人民币的GDP增长需要提供多少新增的人民币贷款(社会融资总规模)帮助。

为了保持高增长,掩盖收入差距扩大和投资的融资质量恶化等问题,中国倾向于信贷扩张。这种倾向让人想到西方的明斯基时刻。

我们应该假设中国现在正处于信贷周期的巅峰,或者接近巅峰。

无论如何,信贷密度会下降,它将加剧中国的增长率下降形势。

到2014-15年,增长可能降至5%,甚至更低。

You are receiving this email because you subscribed to this feed at blogtrottr.com.

If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can unsubscribe from this feed, or manage all your subscriptions

华尔街见闻: 高盛城市报告:图解全球城市演变史

华尔街见闻
 
What drives your body?

Explore your exercise, sleep and food data to discover your body on projectaddapp
From our sponsors
高盛城市报告:图解全球城市演变史
Nov 24th 2013, 08:45, by 张澄

越来越多的人迁居城市,于是,如今住在城市的人口规模比历史上任何时候都要大。目前全球25个大城市占世界GDP的份额已经接近50%。

然而,并不是所有的城市都注定成为伟大的城市,要在历史上留下重重一笔,一个城市至少需要诸如地理位置、资源等天然优势,更重要的是,还需要卓越的教育、劳动力、财产权、强大的工业以及能够吸引资本的政策。

高盛在报告中表示,一个城市的衰落,逃不脱两个原因:要么是过度依赖与利润丰厚的某个产业,要么是特权阶级的利益在作祟。

下图列出了历史上不同时代的世界最大城市,左右两边分别是东方和西方的最大城市:

1950年至2010年,人口增长最多的国家中,中国北京和上海分列第三位和第七位,前十二位中,有7个城市来自新兴市场:

2012年吸引国际游客最多的城市,香港排在第一位,深圳和广州位列第七和第十五位:

1987年以来,纽约、伦敦、香港、新加坡以及东京的房价变化图如下,香港房价从2009年以来的增长远超过其他大城市:

以下是来自高盛的汇总图表,可以看出,有一些城市在不断地崛起,而有一些城市正处于濒临衰落的边缘,还有一些城市正处于盛世繁荣中:

点击图片查看大图

文章分类: 
自由标签: 

You are receiving this email because you subscribed to this feed at blogtrottr.com.

If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can unsubscribe from this feed, or manage all your subscriptions

华尔街见闻: 33万亿美元——亿万富豪的社交圈子值多少钱

华尔街见闻
 
What drives your body?

Explore your exercise, sleep and food data to discover your body on projectaddapp
From our sponsors
33万亿美元——亿万富豪的社交圈子值多少钱
Nov 24th 2013, 07:04, by 张澄

2009年以来,全球最富人群一直是财政政策和货币政策的最大受益者,目前,据瑞银统计,全球亿万富豪达到了2170位,较2009年的水平增加了60%。

不仅如此,这些亿万富豪的固定净资产也从2009年的3.1万亿美元翻了一倍多,达到6.5万亿美元。而与此同时,世界上另外90%的"穷人"所拥有的净资产却下降了。

根据瑞银和Wealth-X的最新报告,一般来讲,亿万富豪之间都是紧密联系着的,这个社交圈子的平均价值达到了150亿美元,这要比富豪的平均财富高出5倍。而这个数字仅仅基于富豪间的3种主要联系纽带上,如果算上各种各样的会议、晚宴和活动的话,数字会更大。那些决定未来的政策、规则正是在这些晚宴、活动上诞生的。

据Wealth-X在报告中表示:

"如果把亿万富豪之间所有的联系因素考虑在内,其社交圈子的价值约为33万亿美元,这相当于两个美国的GDP。"

下图列举了一些美国富人的"影响力圈子"的价值规模:

文章分类: 
自由标签: 

You are receiving this email because you subscribed to this feed at blogtrottr.com.

If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can unsubscribe from this feed, or manage all your subscriptions

华尔街见闻: 2013年中国企业并购规模将超越日本成亚洲第一

华尔街见闻
 
What drives your body?

Explore your exercise, sleep and food data to discover your body on projectaddapp
From our sponsors
2013年中国企业并购规模将超越日本成亚洲第一
Nov 24th 2013, 07:36, by 若离

路透数据显示,今年中国将成为亚洲企业并购合计规模最大的国家,超过占据榜首两年之久的日本,而且并购领域已不仅限于自然资源,拓展到了食品与银行等行业。

中国企业收购美国公司的最大交易就在今年发生。

它就是9月下旬获批的双汇国际收购美国肉类加工商Smithfield Food,交易规模高达71亿美元。

汤森路透数据显示,迄今为止,今年中国企业海外并购规模合计562亿美元,虽然还低于去年的621亿美元,但已远超日本企业今年的407亿美元并购交易规模。

不仅如此,路透采访的一些投资银行家还预计,中国的大型企业明年还会加大并购步伐,因为他们需要寻找新的收入增长源,更多的全球品牌要开拓市场。

中国企业并购涉及领域仍然主要集中在能源和电力,但这些行业所占的比例已经降低,从五年前的52.3%降至44.1%。

同期金融业占比则增长三分之二,增至14.4%,增幅66%。

花旗亚太区并购主管Colin Banfield认为

全球金融危机期间,中国金融机构的境外交易规模缩减。

现在他们显示的信心比那次危机以来的任何时候都足。

预计这一领域的并购还会增多。

Banfield还指出,医疗保健和科技业是关键板块,这两个领域的并购会增加,

私人部门越来越突出。我们发现并购活动的领导者从国有企业转变为私营企业。

汤森路透数据显示,今年承接中国境外交易业务最多的是巴克莱,其次分别是摩根士丹利、高盛和花旗。

文章分类: 
自由标签: 

You are receiving this email because you subscribed to this feed at blogtrottr.com.

If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can unsubscribe from this feed, or manage all your subscriptions

华尔街见闻: 失意的对冲基金:今年平均收益仅为标普500指数的25%

华尔街见闻
 
What drives your body?

Explore your exercise, sleep and food data to discover your body on projectaddapp
From our sponsors
失意的对冲基金:今年平均收益仅为标普500指数的25%
Nov 24th 2013, 07:35, by 时芳胜

截止10月底,对冲基金今年的平均收益仅为6%,是标普500指数和共同基金平均收益的25%。

对冲基金可能会用传统的观点回击,即对冲基金的目的不是为了取得高于市场的回报,而是为了对冲市场下跌的风险。Zero Hedge称,只要美联储继续维持QE和其它宽松政策,那么市场就不会下跌,对冲基金对冲市场下跌风险的目标也难以实现,因为美联储绝不会再次令市场下跌。

当然,如果美联储失控,那么即使最好的对冲基金也难以避免灾难。

下面是高盛的评论:

截止到10月31日,对冲基金平均收益为6%,远低于标普500指数和大型共同基金25%的涨幅。2013年上半年,对冲基金平均收益为4%,标普500指数收益为20%。这意味着,在对冲基金在取得余下2%的收益之际,标普500指数上涨了5%。

根据对冲基金收益分布来看,20%的对冲基金遭受了损失。对冲基金收益的标准差偏大,为11%。仅有不足5%的对冲基金的收益超过标普500指数和大型对冲基金

股票多/空基金的表现稍微强于对冲基金,截至10月底的收益为10%宏观对冲基金表现最差,平均收益为-4%

高盛的Hedge Fund VIP年初至今的收益为30%。

文章分类: 
自由标签: 

You are receiving this email because you subscribed to this feed at blogtrottr.com.

If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can unsubscribe from this feed, or manage all your subscriptions

华尔街见闻: 解读伊朗核问题临时协议

华尔街见闻
 
Teach your child to read.

Save 20% now with Hooked on Phonics! Enter 'SAVE20' at checkout.
From our sponsors
解读伊朗核问题临时协议
Nov 24th 2013, 06:34, by 莫西干

伊朗和六大国终于历史性地就伊朗核问题达成协议,但这份临时的协议究竟意味着什么呢?伊朗核问题局势发展又发生了什么改变呢?以下是来自NYT的解读:

周日与伊朗达成的临时协议在接近10年首次打断了伊朗的核计划,但只要求伊朗在核心问题上作出不大的让步作为"首期"。

该协议并没有"撤回"伊朗在过去5年中获得的大部分技术进步,这些技术进步已经大幅缩减了伊朗制造核武器的"突破时间(Dash time)"——也就是如果伊朗最高领袖或军方决定发展核武器,制造出来所需要的最少时间。

延长这个时间,这样美国和它的盟国将有时间作出反应,这是奥巴马谈判团的最终目标。

然而,长期作为美国坚实盟友的以色列和沙特阿拉伯一直公开反对奥巴马的和平计划。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在谈判期间就一直游说六国保持对伊朗的强硬态度,而且在今天早些时候还公开批准这是个"糟糕的协议",甚至完全没要求伊朗"移除一台离心机"。为了表示对奥巴马的不满,沙特甚至准备寻求自己的核武器。

但奥巴马认为这份临时协议是必要的第一步。

奥巴马,伊朗同意把现在接近武器级别的库存稀释或做转化处理,意味着这份协议将"切断了伊朗最可能获得核弹的途径"。这将只是短暂的切断,但这段时间足以令双方在不需要担心伊朗利用这段时间追寻接近获得核武器实力的背景下,继续推进谈判。

根据美国情报机关的估计,奥巴马在第一阶段赢得的核计划进程"撤回",将只会降低伊朗的"突破时间"一个月到几个月。

虽然双方已经达成了协议,但其实仍存在当期的风险,美国和伊朗国内的强硬派可能会否决这份协议。奥巴马上周已经开始游说参议员,希望给和平解决伊朗核问题争取时间,但不少参议员仍深表疑虑。在伊朗方面,被美国情报机构指责是伊朗武器设计秘密计划运营方的伊斯兰革命卫队,也可能会阻挠协议的实施。

但就算双方都能解决国内的分歧,该协议的本身也是不能解决伊朗核问题的。

克里和他的首席谈判官Wendy Sherman表示…这只是为真正的谈判创造了时间和空间..而(谈判的真正)目标将是说服伊朗领导人解除最严厉制裁(已经导致伊朗石油收入下滑过半)的唯一方法是,撤回核计划的大部分内容,但核计划已经花费了伊朗数以十亿美元计的金钱,并承载了民族的自豪感。

(分析认为)伊朗新任总统Rouhani,"短期内不可能走到这一步","因为他在国内不能被看成是放弃这么大投资计划或放弃国家安全的人"。

虽然双方看似达成了争取时间的好协议,但美国与朝鲜达成协议和利比亚协议的历史经验告诉我们,一切都是可能突然"推倒"的。特别是2003年的利比亚协议,虽然利比亚在核计划上投资的没有伊朗多,进度也远落后于现在伊朗的水平,但利比亚也从未真正成功地按协议废止项目。所以现在的协议可能只提供了一种安全的错觉。

国际原子能机构估计,伊朗已经拥有接近制造数个核弹的核原料,以及1.8万台离心机,而且如果在城市Arak的重水反应堆能在明年如期投产,伊朗将获得制造核弹的新途径。

要伊朗撤回核计划,意味着要解除大部分的离心机、把大部分核原料运到国外或转换成难以制造核武器的状态,同时容许国际社会监控很多地下据点,西方情报机构认为这些据点可能藏有浓缩铀的设备。

因此,奥巴马要和平接近伊朗核问题的前路还困难重重。

最终,奥巴马的最大挑战可能是在美国国家利益与以色列和伊朗逊尼穆斯林邻国利益之间进行协调。对奥巴马来说,冻结伊朗核计划的临时协议是重大的胜利,而能令伊朗撤回核计划进程,甚至只是撤回至奥巴马刚上任时候的水平,将是更大的胜利。

毕竟,奥巴马提出的目标一致都是阻止伊朗获得核弹,而不是阻止伊朗获得获得核弹的能力。他知道,无论用武力还是协议,都无法摧毁伊朗已经获得的制造核武器的任何知识。对这来说,一切都已经太晚了。

文章分类: 
自由标签: 

You are receiving this email because you subscribed to this feed at blogtrottr.com.

If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can unsubscribe from this feed, or manage all your subscriptions

华尔街见闻: 历史性限制伊朗核项目协议:你应该了解的要点

华尔街见闻
 
What drives your body?

Explore your exercise, sleep and food data to discover your body on projectaddapp
From our sponsors
历史性限制伊朗核项目协议:你应该了解的要点
Nov 24th 2013, 05:15, by 若离

11月24日,伊朗与伊核问题六国(美国、英国、法国、俄罗斯、中国和德国)就限制伊核计划并放宽对伊制裁达成协议。协议自称,

对伊朗核项目的介入监控和透明度前所未有。

西方国家官员称,这份协议将制止伊朗继续发展核项目,打击伊朗建立核设施关键组成部分,对伊进行监控,使伊朗生产武器用核燃料的时间延长。

伊朗称,协议打破了经济制裁,表明国际社会认同伊朗追求开发民用核项目。

协议赋予双方哪些权利?让我们看看华尔街日报归纳的协议要点:

铀浓缩

   · 伊朗承诺终止所有提取纯度5%以上浓缩铀的活动。

   · 伊核问题六国承认伊朗人民有权使用和平用途的核能源。

铀库存

   · 伊朗将开始将目前存贮的纯度20%浓缩铀转变为无法适用于武器的氧化物,或者降低其纯度。

华尔街见闻注:纯度达到20%即可用于武器,原子弹需要的核原料纯度达到90%。

   · 伊朗不得增加低浓缩铀。

离心机

   · 可生产纯度高于5%的浓缩铀的离心机都将停工。

   · 伊朗不会安装任何新的离心机,不会用新设备替代老设备。伊朗不得增加国内浓缩设施数量。

   · 如长期谈判破裂,伊朗不会大批装备可迅速使用就位的离心机。

审查

   · 对进行和浓缩作业的纳坦兹(Natanz)研究发展基地与福尔多(Fordow)地下基地,将增加审查频率,首次由每周检查改为每日检查。新增检查地区包括离心机生产场所、铀矿和铀冶厂,检查还将收集阿拉克(Arak)重水核反应堆的信息。

   · 伊朗同意与联合国观察机构国际原子能组织(IAEA)达成协议。应该协议要求,伊朗将提供更多的信息,披露核反应堆及生产场所相关计划。

阿拉克核反应堆

   · 实施中期协议期间,该核电站不会进一步开展工作。

   · 实施中期协议期间,伊朗不会开始拆除阿拉克反应堆,今后也不会拆除。

制裁

   · 实施中期协议期间解除的对伊制裁合计规模相当于60-70亿美元,但与继续实行的制裁相比,解除制裁减少的成本占比还很小。

   · 1000亿美元伊朗外储之中,大部分外储的制裁还没有解除,伊朗使用这些外储还大受限制。

   · 如要进行人道活动,伊朗会得到更好的渠道动用自己的资金。

   · 伊朗出口石化产品的制裁暂停。

   · 伊朗交易黄金及其他贵金属的制裁暂停。

   · 大多数影响伊朗汽车业的制裁暂停。

   · 对一些飞机零部件的制裁解除,包括保证航空安全的零部件,但不包括军用雷达使用的部件。

   · 解除一切对伊朗购买医疗设备的资金限制。西方国家将监督这类采购,以保证设备来自得到认可的公司,并非动机可疑的公司。

   · 所有解除制裁的规定都是短期的有限解除,均可撤销。银行和石油的核心制裁都将维持不变。如伊朗未履行承诺,则任何解除规定都会撤销。

新制裁

   · 如伊朗违反协议规定,西方国家保留施加新制裁的权力。

"突袭"效果

西方官员称,实施中期协议后,如伊朗迅速生产武器级材料所需的时间将从几周延长到几个月。

这意味着伊朗拥有的高纯度浓缩铀和离心机更少了,面对的审查员更多了,国际社会将得到更多的时间和必要手段发起突然袭击。


以下为白宫发布的核协议内容:

First Step Understandings Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran's Nuclear Program

The P5+1 (the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, and China, facilitated by the European Union) has been engaged in serious and substantive negotiations with Iran with the goal of reaching a verifiable diplomatic resolution that would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

President Obama has been clear that achieving a peaceful resolution that prevents Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is in America's national security interest. Today, the P5+1 and Iran reached a set of initial understandings that halts the progress of Iran's nuclear program and rolls it back in key respects. These are the first meaningful limits that Iran has accepted on its nuclear program in close to a decade. The initial, six month step includes significant limits on Iran's nuclear program and begins to address our most urgent concerns including Iran's enrichment capabilities; its existing stockpiles of enriched uranium; the number and capabilities of its centrifuges; and its ability to produce weapons-grade plutonium using the Arak reactor. The concessions Iran has committed to make as part of this first step will also provide us with increased transparency and intrusive monitoring of its nuclear program. In the past, the concern has been expressed that Iran will use negotiations to buy time to advance their program. Taken together, these first step measures will help prevent Iran from using the cover of negotiations to continue advancing its nuclear program as we seek to negotiate a long-term, comprehensive solution that addresses all of the international community's concerns.

In return, as part of this initial step, the P5+1 will provide limited, temporary, targeted, and reversible relief to Iran. This relief is structured so that the overwhelming majority of the sanctions regime, including the key oil, banking, and financial sanctions architecture, remains in place. The P5+1 will continue to enforce these sanctions vigorously. If Iran fails to meet its commitments, we will revoke the limited relief and impose additional sanctions on Iran.

The P5+1 and Iran also discussed the general parameters of a comprehensive solution that would constrain Iran's nuclear program over the long term, provide verifiable assurances to the international community that Iran's nuclear activities will be exclusively peaceful, and ensure that any attempt by Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon would be promptly detected. The set of understandings also includes an acknowledgment by Iran that it must address all United Nations Security Council resolutions – which Iran has long claimed are illegal – as well as past and present issues with Iran's nuclear program that have been identified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This would include resolution of questions concerning the possible military dimension of Iran's nuclear program, including Iran's activities at Parchin. As part of a comprehensive solution, Iran must also come into full compliance with its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its obligations to the IAEA. With respect to the comprehensive solution, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Put simply, this first step expires in six months, and does not represent an acceptable end state to the United States or our P5+1 partners.

Halting the Progress of Iran's Program and Rolling Back Key Elements

Iran has committed to halt enrichment above 5%:

· Halt all enrichment above 5% and dismantle the technical connections required to enrich above 5%.

Iran has committed to neutralize its stockpile of near-20% uranium:

· Dilute below 5% or convert to a form not suitable for further enrichment its entire stockpile of near-20% enriched uranium before the end of the initial phase.

Iran has committed to halt progress on its enrichment capacity:

· Not install additional centrifuges of any type.

· Not install or use any next-generation centrifuges to enrich uranium.

· Leave inoperable roughly half of installed centrifuges at Natanz and three-quarters of installed centrifuges at Fordow, so they cannot be used to enrich uranium.

· Limit its centrifuge production to those needed to replace damaged machines, so Iran cannot use the six months to stockpile centrifuges.

· Not construct additional enrichment facilities.

Iran has committed to halt progress on the growth of its 3.5% stockpile:

· Not increase its stockpile of 3.5% low enriched uranium, so that the amount is not greater at the end of the six months than it is at the beginning, and any newly enriched 3.5% enriched uranium is converted into oxide.

Iran has committed to no further advances of its activities at Arak and to halt progress on its plutonium track. Iran has committed to:

· Not commission the Arak reactor.

· Not fuel the Arak reactor.

· Halt the production of fuel for the Arak reactor.

· No additional testing of fuel for the Arak reactor.

· Not install any additional reactor components at Arak.

· Not transfer fuel and heavy water to the reactor site.

· Not construct a facility capable of reprocessing. Without reprocessing, Iran cannot separate plutonium from spent fuel.

Unprecedented transparency and intrusive monitoring of Iran's nuclear program

Iran has committed to:

· Provide daily access by IAEA inspectors at Natanz and Fordow. This daily access will permit inspectors to review surveillance camera footage to ensure comprehensive monitoring. This access will provide even greater transparency into enrichment at these sites and shorten detection time for any non-compliance.

· Provide IAEA access to centrifuge assembly facilities.

· Provide IAEA access to centrifuge rotor component production and storage facilities.

· Provide IAEA access to uranium mines and mills.

· Provide long-sought design information for the Arak reactor. This will provide critical insight into the reactor that has not previously been available.

· Provide more frequent inspector access to the Arak reactor.

· Provide certain key data and information called for in the Additional Protocol to Iran's IAEA Safeguards Agreement and Modified Code 3.1.

Verification Mechanism

The IAEA will be called upon to perform many of these verification steps, consistent with their ongoing inspection role in Iran. In addition, the P5+1 and Iran have committed to establishing a Joint Commission to work with the IAEA to monitor implementation and address issues that may arise. The Joint Commission will also work with the IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present concerns with respect to Iran's nuclear program, including the possible military dimension of Iran's nuclear program and Iran's activities at Parchin.

Limited, Temporary, Reversible Relief

In return for these steps, the P5+1 is to provide limited, temporary, targeted, and reversible relief while maintaining the vast bulk of our sanctions, including the oil, finance, and banking sanctions architecture. If Iran fails to meet its commitments, we will revoke the relief. Specifically the P5+1 has committed to:

· Not impose new nuclear-related sanctions for six months, if Iran abides by its commitments under this deal, to the extent permissible within their political systems.

· Suspend certain sanctions on gold and precious metals, Iran's auto sector, and Iran's petrochemical exports, potentially providing Iran approximately $1.5 billion in revenue.

· License safety-related repairs and inspections inside Iran for certain Iranian airlines.

· Allow purchases of Iranian oil to remain at their currently significantly reduced levels – levels that are 60% less than two years ago. $4.2 billion from these sales will be allowed to be transferred in installments if, and as, Iran fulfills its commitments.

· Allow $400 million in governmental tuition assistance to be transferred from restricted Iranian funds directly to recognized educational institutions in third countries to defray the tuition costs of Iranian students.

Humanitarian Transactions

Facilitate humanitarian transactions that are already allowed by U.S. law. Humanitarian transactions have been explicitly exempted from sanctions by Congress so this channel will not provide Iran access to any new source of funds. Humanitarian transactions are those related to Iran's purchase of food, agricultural commodities, medicine, medical devices; we would also facilitate transactions for medical expenses incurred abroad. We will establish this channel for the benefit of the Iranian people.

Putting Limited Relief in Perspective

In total, the approximately $7 billion in relief is a fraction of the costs that Iran will continue to incur during this first phase under the sanctions that will remain in place. The vast majority of Iran's approximately $100 billion in foreign exchange holdings are inaccessible or restricted by sanctions.

In the next six months, Iran's crude oil sales cannot increase. Oil sanctions alone will result in approximately $30 billion in lost revenues to Iran – or roughly $5 billion per month – compared to what Iran earned in a six month period in 2011, before these sanctions took effect. While Iran will be allowed access to $4.2 billion of its oil sales, nearly $15 billion of its revenues during this period will go into restricted overseas accounts. In summary, we expect the balance of Iran's money in restricted accounts overseas will actually increase, not decrease, under the terms of this deal.

Maintaining Economic Pressure on Iran and Preserving Our Sanctions Architecture

During the first phase, we will continue to vigorously enforce our sanctions against Iran, including by taking action against those who seek to evade or circumvent our sanctions.

· Sanctions affecting crude oil sales will continue to impose pressure on Iran's government. Working with our international partners, we have cut Iran's oil sales from 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in early 2012 to 1 million bpd today, denying Iran the ability to sell almost 1.5 million bpd. That's a loss of more than $80 billion since the beginning of 2012 that Iran will never be able to recoup. Under this first step, the EU crude oil ban will remain in effect and Iran will be held to approximately 1 million bpd in sales, resulting in continuing lost sales worth an additional $4 billion per month, every month, going forward.

· Sanctions affecting petroleum product exports to Iran, which result in billions of dollars of lost revenue, will remain in effect.

· The vast majority of Iran's approximately $100 billion in foreign exchange holdings remain inaccessible or restricted by our sanctions.

· Other significant parts of our sanctions regime remain intact, including:

o Sanctions against the Central Bank of Iran and approximately two dozen other major Iranian banks and financial actors;

o Secondary sanctions, pursuant to the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (CISADA) as amended and other laws, on banks that do business with U.S.-designated individuals and entities;

o Sanctions on those who provide a broad range of other financial services to Iran, such as many types of insurance; and,

 Restricted access to the U.S. financial system.

· All sanctions on over 600 individuals and entities targeted for supporting Iran's nuclear or ballistic missile program remain in effect.

· Sanctions on several sectors of Iran's economy, including shipping and shipbuilding, remain in effect.

· Sanctions on long-term investment in and provision of technical services to Iran's energy sector remain in effect.

· Sanctions on Iran's military program remain in effect.

· Broad U.S. restrictions on trade with Iran remain in effect, depriving Iran of access to virtually all dealings with the world's biggest economy.

· All UN Security Council sanctions remain in effect.

· All of our targeted sanctions related to Iran's state sponsorship of terrorism, its destabilizing role in the Syrian conflict, and its abysmal human rights record, among other concerns, remain in effect.

文章分类: 

You are receiving this email because you subscribed to this feed at blogtrottr.com.

If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can unsubscribe from this feed, or manage all your subscriptions