2014年1月10日星期五

华尔街见闻: 忘了金砖四国和欧猪五国吧,是时候关注“脆弱五国”了

华尔街见闻
 
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忘了金砖四国和欧猪五国吧,是时候关注"脆弱五国"了
Jan 10th 2014, 14:46, by Guevara

尽管主流媒体都认为,市场已经将美联储缩减QE计入定价,Saxo Capital Markets警告称,巴西、印度、南非、印尼和土耳其等新兴市场国家已经成为"脆弱五国",因为这些国家都面临着大规模的经常性账户赤字,随着美联储进一步缩减QE导致全球风险嗜好恶化,他们的货币将不断贬值。

上图中横轴为经常性账户占GDP的比例,纵轴为截至2013年10月的汇率变化比例。"脆弱五国"的不仅经常性账户赤字占GDP比例很高,而且货币贬值比较严重。

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